Governor Tries Again With Redistricting Bid

By John Marelius, Union-Tribune Staff Writer
San Diego Union Tribune
October 10, 2008

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger does not like to take �no� for an answer.

So he's back on the ballot with one of his pet issues � taking the power to redraw legislative district boundaries away from the Legislature.

When Schwarzenegger asked voters in his 2005 special election to change the way political boundaries are drawn, they said �no,� as they had to four previous redistricting initiatives in the 1980s and '90s.

Polls indicate the outcome of Proposition 11 on the Nov. 4 ballot may be no different. A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California showed Proposition 11 well shy of the majority required to pass, with 38 percent of likely voters in favor and 33 percent opposed.

But supporters of the idea say it has an outside chance of passing if proponents can tap into pervasive voter anger at politicians in general and the state Legislature in particular after the three-month budget deadlock.

�The problem is that 'redistricting' is the single least interesting word in the English language and voters need a compelling reason to vote for a ballot initiative, otherwise they tend to be distrustful and vote 'no,' � said Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist who directs the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

�If the proponents can find a way to explain to voters why this is a logical vehicle for them to drive all that distrust and hatred of politicians, this might not be such a bad environment for Prop. 11,� he said.

Proposition 11 would set up a 14-member independent commission to redraw boundaries for state Assembly, Senate and Board of Equalization districts after the census every 10 years. Sponsors of Proposition 11 did not include congressional districts after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, threatened to spend what it takes to torpedo the measure if they did.

Supporters of Proposition 11 contend there is an inherent conflict of interests in allowing legislators to draw their own districts. They say the redistricting of 2001 that protected incumbents of both parties removed the last vestiges of electoral competition and created legislative gridlock.

California has had 459 congressional and legislative elections since the last redistricting. Only one incumbent has lost, and only one seat has changed parties.

�It's important to hold legislators accountable and force them to earn our votes, rather than drawing their own legislative districts,� said Ruben Barrales, president and CEO of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, at a news conference this week.

Opponents say Proposition 11 is a Republican power grab that could disenfranchise minorities.

�It is a vehicle to increase Republican influence in state government at a time when the Republican Party is losing influence with the general electorate,� Pelosi and four other congressional Democrats said in a letter to Schwarzenegger in July.

Past redistricting ballot battles in California have been highly partisan. This time, Schwarzenegger, a Republican, has assembled a broad coalition including California Common Cause, the League of Women Voters of California and AARP California.

Also on board are several prominent Democrats, including former Gov. Gray Davis, former state Controller Steve Westly and former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg of Van Nuys.

The opposition is led by legislative Democrats along with several major labor unions and minority-rights organizations.

Some minority activists object to Proposition 11, saying that while it guarantees partisan balance on the redistricting commission, it does nothing to guarantee minority participation.

�It will harm minority representation for decades to come and is a logistical nightmare,� said Steven Ochoa, director of voting rights and policy research for the William C. Velasquez Institute. �You're talking about removing a lot of seats at the table. With a state that's as big and diverse as California, there's a question of fairness.�

Tony Quinn, co-editor of California Target Book, which analyzes congressional and legislative campaigns, argued minorities have nothing to worry about.

Quinn, who has worked as a Republican redistricting consultant, said minorities made the biggest gains in the 1970s and 1990s after the courts, not the Legislature, drew the lines.

He also disputed the notion that Republicans stand to make significant gains. Because Democrats are increasingly concentrated in the coastal counties and Republicans in the inland ones, he said, there aren't many areas where new Republican seats, or even highly competitive ones, could be drawn.

�Whether there would be a lot of marginal districts is open to question because the state is so polarized,� he said.

A recent study by the Public Policy Institute of California cast doubt on the theory that independent redistricting would lead to decreased partisan gridlock in the Legislature.

�There was just as much partisanship in the late 1990s as there was in the mid-2000s,� said PPIC research fellow Eric McGhee. �Redistricting did not make California legislators more partisan. They were partisan to begin with.�

Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of California Target Book, countered that the current lines have made the Legislature less responsive because no incumbent has to worry about being re-elected.

�When you draw seats that all but guarantee one party or the other, then the two political parties are immune to public opinion,� Hoffenblum said. �The Democrats know that under no circumstances will they lose control, and the Republicans know they will never gain control. That changes the whole philosophy of how they act. They don't think, 'We'd better do something or the voters will get mad at us.' �

The Proposition 11 commission would be composed of 14 registered voters � five Democrats, five Republicans and four voters who are members of minor parties or not affiliated with any parties.

Anybody who has run for state or federal office in the past 10 years would be excluded, as would lobbyists and people who contributed more than $2,000 a year to any candidate.

A panel of state auditors would winnow the applicant pool to 60. Legislative leaders would be allowed to strike certain applicants, then auditors would choose eight at random, and those eight would choose the other six.

In drawing districts, the commission would be required to respect city and county boundaries and communities of interest unless it's not practical, but it could not consider the residency of incumbents or candidates.

The final plan would require at least nine votes for approval, including at least three from each partisan group.